1
Calculate Your Win Number
Based on historical turnout and number of candidates
Enter turnout rates from the last 2–3 comparable elections in your district. The calculator averages them to estimate total ballots, then divides by the number of candidates to find your win threshold.
%
2024 General
%
2022 General
%
2020 General (optional)
Total in your district
Including yourself
Avg choices per voter (2.0–2.1 typical)
—
Avg turnout %
—
Est. total ballots
—
Contest votes
6,200
← Your Win Number · Set this as your target ↓
2
Build Your Voter Strategy
Set your expected win percentage for each voter segment
You know your district. Is another Democrat splitting your base? Are there persuadable Republicans on water rates? Adjust the sliders until the strategy reflects reality — not wishful thinking.
Win number target:
votes needed to win
Start with a scenario or adjust manually:
| Voter segment | Voters | % of party | Your % | Exp. votes |
|---|
—
Expected total votes
—%
of win number
0
Win number: 6,200
Total voters: 37,229